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Overbetting free roll

These graphs illustrate the long term power of using Kelly sizing to increase one's bankroll over time, and beg the question, 'if Kelly betting will lead to such incredible returns, then betting double or triple Kelly must lead to even higher returns! It turns out that someone betting 1. Betting 2 Kelly actually has the same expected return as not betting at all: exactly zero, and betting more than two Kelly has a negative long term expected growth even if you are making positive expected value bets, and your bankroll will eventually fall to zero!

In conclusion, Kelly sizing is in fact, as has been stated several times, the point at which return is exactly optimal. Another important point to consider is that the dangers of over-estimating and over-betting your edge are not restricted to Kelly Betting.

Flat bettors or even bettors who gamble 'however much they feel like' on a given trip to the casino frequently over-estimate and over-bet as well. Generally, bettors this unsophisticated are over-betting no matter what they do; they have zero edge at best, and probably a negative edge expectation, and shouldn't even be betting in the first place.

Yet, many advantageous cappers or bettors who buy my picks can unwittingly over-bet as well. In addition to the dangers of over betting, the Kelly Criterion also has large swings compared to flat betting. To an academic, this is immaterial, since they can keep their eyes on the long run expected growth.

However, to investors who are often investing money for a shorter period of time and expecting immediate and consistent returns, this relatively high short term risk and volatility is unacceptable. However, because variance is exponentially related to return, we find that cutting the bet size in half causes only a nominal reduction in expected growth, but square roots the variance.

Betting one half Kelly unit instead of a full unit also helps prevent accidental over betting when we may have overestimated our edge, and we have already examined how destructive this can be. In this case, he should have bet only 5. In this case, the win percentage miscalculation would have caused him to mistakenly bet twice the determined appropriate bet size… and he would have bet 1.

Post your thoughts and comments here. I think our range for stacking off is a function of how likely villain is going to get stacked by someone else. In the unlikely case that we flop a strong draw when he overbets, given stack depth there is a stronger argument for flatting than raising since we have no fold equity and can likely give up if we miss and get him to put chips in with no equity on later streets.

Was thinking what this means for his other ranges, we can probably bluff raise his non overbets more often as they are probably capped. Of course, also be willing to get stacks in much weaker than usual at this depth e. It could easily be that the first one was a big one.

Also brings back some funny memories. I think I shove the low and mid pocket pairs, expect to outkick him if the high-card hands hit. I feel like given his overaggression, the most important place to exploit his playstyle is preflop since his betting makes early showdowns more likely.

This is my first time trying to think these things through in such depth so any advice or holes in my logic others find, please let me know. Just realized that it made no sense for me to say that best place to exploit is preflop since the given conditions of this player are that he makes more mistakes on the flop and later. Hey Adam, I thought I should point out that we are currently bb effective which makes any 3bet shove preflop is roughly is at least x pot shove.

Resort to tighter play, be patient and stack him. If someone else beats u to it so be it. The other guys at this table have already been identified as loose and passive. Your still deep. Does it really make a difference at this stage? Observe him carefully. Last thing you want is for him to switch gears on you and you come to find out it was all a setup. Is he really a fish or pretending to be one?? If he really is a complete donk, put him to the test with the midddle-to-top of your range and be willing to stack of lighter than you otherwise might.

Also, be sure to iso!

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However, because variance is exponentially related to return, we find that cutting the bet size in half causes only a nominal reduction in expected growth, but square roots the variance. Betting one half Kelly unit instead of a full unit also helps prevent accidental over betting when we may have overestimated our edge, and we have already examined how destructive this can be. In this case, he should have bet only 5. In this case, the win percentage miscalculation would have caused him to mistakenly bet twice the determined appropriate bet size… and he would have bet 1.

Full Kelly wagering is optimal when you know the odds exactly as might a card counter who is aware of precisely which cards remain , but is too dangerous when positive expectation wagers are less certain.

Bob still strives to estimate his win probabilities exactly, but even so, some degree of uncertainty exists. Bettors are well advised to halve or even third their bet sizes to cut down immensely on volatility while sacrificing relatively little expected growth. However, their concepts of money management are so poor that almost all of them over bet wildly, driving their long term expectation to zero, and they all end up completely broke. The following anecdote, which could be any one of a million different bettors, illustrates the dangers of over betting:.

I wasn't worried though, because the story is always the same with these guys. Three weeks after he started, Archie was broke. Archie is a prototypical gambler with absolutely no investment discipline. Rampant over betting is a great way to empty your pockets while winning two thirds of your games.

Does this story sound familiar? Bob's customers are different, though, which is why books are so scared of them. I think our range for stacking off is a function of how likely villain is going to get stacked by someone else. In the unlikely case that we flop a strong draw when he overbets, given stack depth there is a stronger argument for flatting than raising since we have no fold equity and can likely give up if we miss and get him to put chips in with no equity on later streets.

Was thinking what this means for his other ranges, we can probably bluff raise his non overbets more often as they are probably capped. Of course, also be willing to get stacks in much weaker than usual at this depth e. It could easily be that the first one was a big one. Also brings back some funny memories. I think I shove the low and mid pocket pairs, expect to outkick him if the high-card hands hit. I feel like given his overaggression, the most important place to exploit his playstyle is preflop since his betting makes early showdowns more likely.

This is my first time trying to think these things through in such depth so any advice or holes in my logic others find, please let me know. Just realized that it made no sense for me to say that best place to exploit is preflop since the given conditions of this player are that he makes more mistakes on the flop and later. Hey Adam, I thought I should point out that we are currently bb effective which makes any 3bet shove preflop is roughly is at least x pot shove.

Resort to tighter play, be patient and stack him. If someone else beats u to it so be it. The other guys at this table have already been identified as loose and passive. Your still deep. Does it really make a difference at this stage? Observe him carefully. Last thing you want is for him to switch gears on you and you come to find out it was all a setup. Is he really a fish or pretending to be one?? If he really is a complete donk, put him to the test with the midddle-to-top of your range and be willing to stack of lighter than you otherwise might.

Also, be sure to iso! I would try to see some flops with a lot of speculative hands and slow play post flop.

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How To Play - No Limit Holdem - Overbetting Strategy

Affordable and Free Stock Footage. However, as a general rule, we say bitwallet bitcoins above 5x should stop, namely, when you to make poor betting decisions 10x if they can afford. But, before taking them on, difference to your sportsbook rollover. No optimal stopping rules exist. Collection courtesy of Getty Images. Can you bet the rollover being cheated, then of course. HD and 4K B-Roll Sample. Leave a comment Cancel reply ignore the bonus altogether. And that makes a huge. By that, of course, we spending more than you can.

Hand Review: Overbetting for Value in Level 1 Aaron Frei. Third, I'm okay letting a free diamond roll off and ruin my hand on the river. Play Now · $88 Free | $ Bonus. T&Cs | of hands and chasing lots of stuff post-flop (though not against the overbetting fiend, they just roll their eyes and fold when he does his thing.