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Any new housebuilding policy should keep control over land and retain its value for the public good, argue Steve Bendle and Pat Conaty. Some of us have long experience in the world of finance, having worked in banks or hedge funds. This has a lot of personal weight for me, because I have lived in and helped construct a hacker culture that maintains a huge software commons and continually pushes for open, non-proprietary infrastructure.

These are sometimes presented as a contradiction between the productive nature of the capitalist, as a generator of new forms of wealth, and the parasitic character of the rentier. Towards a Zero Marginal Cost Economy. Laurent Fournier. Simon Michaux has recently added a comment to his brilliant lecture on peak mining: Data has been collected since this was uploaded and this presentation has evolved.

The resource pyramid conundrum Figure Grade of mined minerals has been decreasing Figure Metals and minerals raw material manufacturing landfill cycle Figure Historical sources of phosphorus fertilizer Figure Metals and minerals raw material manufacturing landfill cycle Figure 63 World energy consumption forecast by economic development and fuel, Figure World primary energy consumption by region and fuel, Figure Estimated vehicle miles driven on all roads in United States Figure Weekly U.

Global production and consumption of oil by region, Figure Conventional oil discovery Figure Net difference between annual world oil reserves additions and annual consumption Figure Oil producing countries past their peak Figure US crude oil production million barrels per day Figure Global drilling of oil wells Figure The pyramid of oil and gas resource volume versus resource quality Figure Mitigation crash programs started at the time of world oil peaking: A significant supply shortfall occurs over the forecast period.

Delayed wedge approximation for various mitigation options Figure World natural gas production and consumption, — Figure Natural gas discoveries by decade Figure Global natural gas reserves EWG scenario Figure World hard coal production by region Figure World coal production by coal rank Figure Reasonably assured and inferred resources and cumulative uranium production of the most productive countries Figure Peak energy resources current paradigm of society Figure Projected peak oil, gas and coal Figure Peak total energy, normalized data from oil, NGLs, natural gas, hard coal, lignite and uranium reserves Figure Estimate of Future Energy Production Figure Structural interaction between raw materials, the real economy and the fiat economy Figure Proportional global volume of major currencies Figure QE scale of printing of money 12 months after the start of QE1 Figure Global Quantitative easing from — Figure US monetary supply since Figure European Money Supply M1 Figure The US debt saturation point Figure Data as of August Major currencies as valued by gold price, as of August 31, Figure Derivatives volume compared to annual GDP Figure Debt Levels around the World Figure The European interlocking sovereign debt conundrum Figure The real economy vs.

Progression of financial crisis from financial to economic to political arenas Figure Fiat currency spiral to sovereign debt default Figure Event based crisis, financial to economic to political arenas Figure The price of oil as a leading indicator and as a lagging indicator Figure Everything revolves around oil price Figure The two competing gas pipelines passing through Syria to supply Europe Figure The rise and fall of empires and their reign as the global reserve currency Figure Interaction between human civilization and its environment — years ago Figure Interaction between human civilization and its environment — now Figure The choice before us Figure Transformation of our industrial society through a discontinuity Figure The Fan systems crisis and transformation project Figure The Venus Project Figure Progression of peaks in limits to growth scenario Figure Analytics data analysis strategy Figure Work in progress List of Tables Table 1.

Energy density and supply in Table 2. Power generation stations and capacity by type Table 3. There conflicting interpretations of business environment that are relevant to this decision. That being said this decision will have far reaching implications if the concepts in this report prove to be valid.

There is a prediction that there will be an energy supply surplus in or around the year Should ACME Corporation decommission and asset strip some or all of the fleet of incinerators in Germany to avoid a future crash in the energy market? Possible explanations for the reduction in waste generation and reduction in energy demand could be a general increase in efficiency in the European society.

Another explanation is this could be the outcome of EU government policy in accordance to the Kyoto Protocol agreement on the reduction of carbon emissions in Current forms of energy and future challenges of supply. Then the market position and opportunity of ACME was considered. The industry is heavily influenced by compliance requirements in accordance to EU governance legislation. Land fill has been banned in some areas of Europe. Over time this will be become more widespread with the increase of European population.

Figure 1 shows the different kinds of waste generation over time. One of the reasons for this decline has been postulated that this is due to increases in efficiency of the European society to be discussed later. Figure 1. European municipal waste generation and treatment Source: Eurostat It is probable that the size and scope of the waste industry in Europe would increase over time due to impracticalities of land filling and increased population in conjunction with the increased capability to process waste into a valued product.

A more complete discussion on incineration of waste is shown in Appendix A - Waste Incineration in Europe. This observation in conjunction with a perceived increase in imported gas has been the trigger to discuss the challenges associated with an energy surplus. In particular, the energy fuel oil produced by incinerator plants would become a non-viable commodity in this scenario. A projected time frame to where a possible energy surplus in Europe is the year.

It is the autho s opi io that this i u sta e a e possi le ut o l fo a sho t ti e, afte hi h a very serious energy shortage is probable discussed later in Section 8. Figure 2 shows the energy consumption for Europe EU from to This chart shows the different energy sources. Note the dependence on fossil fuels, based on non-renewable natural resources oil, gas, coal and uranium nuclear. As can be observed there is a peak in consumption in and then a steady reduction after that.

The next section of this report will examine possible reasons for this peak in demand. Figure 3 shows the percentage change between peak demand and As can be shown, there is reduction in all consumption of energy resources and an increase in the application of renewable energy. This increase is not enough to account for the decreases in other energy resource consumption. However, it could account for a reduction in the use of coal.

Energy Consumption EU states 2. The peak in as will be shown later was very important. The data from and was also extracted to show a comparison to Figures 4 to 6 show the energy use by resource type for , and It is relevant to note that from to , dependency on oil and gas increased where coal use was being reduced. The methods and processes associated with this foundation has significant momentum. This will not be undone easily. Currently, our industrial systems are absolutely dependent on non-renewable natural resources for energy sources.

Oil, gas and coal. Will continue to do so for some time. A group of economists Thomas Covert et al explored whether market forces alone would cause a reduction in fossil fuel supply or demand. By studying the history of fossil fuel exploration and technological progress for both clean and dirty technologies, they concluded that it is unlikely that the world will stop primarily relying on fossil fuels soon.

The data from the same source as Figure 2 was replotted in Figure 8 to examine the peak of energy demand in Europe. Gross Energy Consumption EU 1. The year was clearly a turning point. However, this data needs further treatment. Underlying this data is population growth of where this energy was consumed. There has been a steady increase in European population 2.

Population Growth EU Energy per Capita - EU 3. Such a large change is a signature for something significant. Throughout the history of human civilization and industrial development, human knowledge, creativity, and sweat have overcome technical, resource, and environmental challenges to convert energy into useful work.

If there was such an action, it would have large and visible footprint. As shown in Figure 3, all sections of European industry declined, some more than others, with the exception of renewable energy. The increase of the use of renewable energy could be referenced against a change in EU government policy as per the Kyoto Protocol of , but this only affects power generation.

As shown in Appendix B The Use and Application of Energy Resources in Europe , it would and did impact the use of coal but would not impact the use of other energy resources like oil and gas. It is relevant to note that the dip in Figure 10 correlates to the worst outcomes of the GFC in to Figures 10, 11 and 12 show that the European Union real economy has not yet and may not recover from the GFC. As such, this important data measurement is a signature for a change in the real economy.

In the year industrial production output plateaued and then crashed a year later. There is a lag time period between what was seen in EU energy consumption and EU industrial output. That being stated, they are clearly linked. The Global Financial Crisis happened a few years later in The author postulates that this is a contraction of the real economy The part of the economy that is concerned with actually producing goods and services, as opposed to the part of the economy that is concerned with buying and selling on the financial markets and was a foreshadow of the GFC itself.

Data extracted in February Most recent data: Further Eurostat information, Main tables and Database. Planned update of this article: February Figure 12 shows raw material consumption per capita for the EU over time. A clear peak in consumption can be seen in , after which an Once again, the data was corrected to include population growth. Less physical goods and services were manufactured or conducted. Less raw material was used after As such, this addresses the theory that the decrease in energy consumption seen in Figure 2 was due to efficiency measures.

Figure 13 show the industrial production index data in comparison between Europe and the United States. The following dark grey band represents the Global Financial Crisis, the worst financial crash and depression since the Great Depression in After a short period of recovery, the IPI index plateaued and declined.

After , the two indices diverged sharply. It is the autho s opinion that this happened due to two things: 1. A change in how the US IPI was calculated, to include financial assets that originated in the printing of money.

The US real economy is underpinned by military spending in the arms industry, whereas the EU spends far less. This in turn means that less waste is in the industrial system in need of treatment. Figures 12 show the peak and decline of the manufacture of goods which would later become waste. As such, that ACME understand the fundamental reasons supporting this downturn in waste generation. This change has been seen in the energy consumed, industrial output and raw materials consumed in Europe EU This section of the report is to examine other data signatures that suggest something is structurally changing in the industrial business environment.

Figures 14 to 24 show a series of charts that show a significant change relevant to the industrial business environment. Only some countries have regained all losses from the GFC crash of Figure That being stated, the amount of debt these countries now has is required to understand the true net position of recovery.

This shows the movement of money from one market to another around the world. There are two clear peaks. One peak is around the year which correlates with the rise and fall of the Dotcom Bubble. The other larger peak is at , just before the GFC happened. Late , a medium sized peak in FDI corresponds to the mining boom of the Southern Hemisphere, where most raw materials flowed to Chinese industrial consumption.

The chart shows the world spot price of crude oil vs. As can be seen there is two clear populations in the data. Prior to , oil supply was elastic and could match demand, thus has a shallow gradient in the data cloud. Post to , the oil supply was inelastic and could not match demand, leading to price swings.

Conventional crude oil has passed the tipping point for easy extraction Source: Murray, J. Nature 26 Jan , Vol Comment The production of oil is a relevant proxy for industrialization as will be discussed in Section 7. That limit was breached in December with a new high of This comes on the back of a prolonged period of record high oil price. Since , unconventional sources of oil were developed and brought into production to meet demand. These new sources are not as calorifically rich in energy as conventional crude oil.

Conventional crude oil supply and demand did separate Source: Yardeni Research www. Figure 20 shows that supply and demand of oil did separate between and During this time, price swings and speculation dominated the market.

This created a price spike in the oil markets peaking in Figure 20 the oil price from the year to The price of oil is an excellent proxy for industrialization. This is discussed more concisely in Section 6. The price of oil shown is adjusted for inflation using the headline CPI and is shown by default on a logarithmic scale.

Figures 21 and 22 show The Baltic Dry Index from the time it was developed in Not restricted to Baltic Sea countries, the index provides "an assessment" of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. This index is a good proxy for the health of the real economy as it measures the bulk transfer movement of real physical goods around the world Rothfeder It is not subject to variability and volatility that other retail market measures are and tends to be more stable over time.

Figure 21 shows a breakout around the end of from the stable pattern from where the BDI was below most of the time. From till was an unprecedented volume movement of goods by shipping container. Then after this small peak, in May, , a second larger peak of 11, in the BDI that eclipses all other measurements before and since. The peak of was an extraordinary movement of real physical goods on a global scale.

Shortly after this peak, there was a proportional crash to a BDI of As can be seen the BDI continued to drop from its high peak on This more clearly than other charts shows that the real economy has been contracting since and has not even begun to recover. In February 12th , the BDI crashed to , an all-time low, with no new signature to correlate with.

As such the issues of the previous decade in the real economy were never resolved. How this happens is an underlying foundation of the industrial society. Figure 23 is the metal price for eight commonly traded metals over time. This is the price of metals market. It is the transfer point between metal mining, heavy industry and manufacturing industry.

The price of metals indexed to the year and number Source: ABS After the metals market underwent unprecedented volatility. The a ket fo es that eated the etal s p i e blowout in was not resolved by the GFC the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression , as such was not a bubble. Moreover the instability patterns continued for years after the GFC. So a large volume of capital investment moved in the global markets, in conjunction with a blowout of metal price, followed by financial downturn of a severity not seen in 75 years, from which the current real economy has yet to recover from fully after 9 years.

There are other signatures that can be used to monitor the relative health of the real economy. The Caterpillar sales record is another useful proxy. Caterpillar Inc. NYSE: CAT is an American corporation which designs, develops, engineers, manufactures, markets and sells machinery, engines, financial products and insurance to customers via a worldwide dealer network. Caterpillar is a leading manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines and diesel-electric locomotives.

In Caterpillar was ranked 59 on the Fortune list and on the Global Fortune list. Caterpillar dominate the market in the sales of heavy earth moving equipment. As such if new industrial projects are started Caterpillar sales increase. If industrial projects are cancelled or shut down, Caterpillar sales decrease. This is how the retail sales of a single company can be used as a proxy for new industrial activity.

Figure 24 shows the year-over-year change in retail sales for Caterpillar. The recovery here could be seen as the mining boom of raw metal commodities in the Southern Hemisphere. That mining boom was the largest in history Downes et al and then had a proportional crash starting in Since , the mining industry has not recovered.

Caterpillar sales have been negative for 50 consecutive months. This is the longest run of this kind recorded. This is another temporal marker to show that the real economy has been contracting for some time. This matches the medium peak shown in Figure 15 in These two graphs show the flight of capital looking for a safe haven on a global scale.

Exploration in particularly vulnerable as the work done does not generate direct revenue for 15 to 20 years after exploration studies are completed. As such, the exploration budget is usually the first to be cut back in the roll over between a boom and a bust. The bust of followed by the bust of was the most severe recorded in terms of industry personnel layoffs and operation shutdowns.

The purpose of showing it in this report is to show anything attached to the real economy at all has been through an unprecedented challenges. The World Bank uses indices like this to do economic modelling and develop strategic planning.

Then in the year , they merged for the first time and were strongly correlated after that. This means that the economic drivers and underpinning measurements for base metals and energy became into alignment. After , both indices rose sharply in an unprecedented fashion.

This is a signature of the costs of raw material extraction becoming more expensive Tverberg The reasons why this might be happening is discussed further in Section 7. The year correlates with another index turning point for the mining industry. The MFP reflects the overall efficiency with which labour and capital inputs are used together in the production process.

A similar pattern was observed in Africa and South America at the same time. Gold mining costs in Australia Source: Brook Hunt Metals Cost Service Analysis Figure 29 shows a break down in the change in operating costs for gold mining in Australia between and This is a data signature for something fundamental. Those challenges are not directly related to other issues presented in this report.

However, those same challenges do directly affect the supply of raw material metals to the market. As a consequence, they exacerbate a number of other problematic issues for the industrial system. One of the outcomes of this report is to demonstrate how interconnected raw materials, energy, manufacturing, industrial activity and the finance markets all are. It allows and facilitates all physical work done, the development of technology and allows human population to live in such high density settlements like modern cities.

The purpose of this section of the report is to examine the role of energy and why it is so important to understand the implications of a rise or fall in energy demand. A simplified flow physical flows that sustain our productive system Analyst - Jean Marc Jancovici The modern world is heavily interdependent.

Many of the structures and institutions we now depend upon function in a global context. As the biophysical economists have shown global economic g o th is losel o elated ith g o th i e e g o su ptio. P ofesso Mi i Li of Utah U i e sit s Department of Economics, shows that between and , that an increase in economic growth rate by one percentage point is associated with an increase in primary energy consumption by 0.

In our current form, industrial society correlates directly with our ability to consume energy. Oil in particular is important to understand. This is because modern society is a petroleum driven economy Heinberg , Martenson , Morse , Ruppert , Tverberg and Wiedenhofer Table 1 shows the energetic density of oil, gas and coal. It also shows the global supply of each of these resources for the year of It is to be remembered that oil is a liquid, natural gas is in a gaseous form and coal is a solid.

As such, standard S. Those resource quantities were then converted to Watt hours, as in the quantity of power supplied in terms of Watt hours. Table 1. The total i stalled apa it a d a e age take f o the a data listi g of a e plate desig ed i stalled po e as al ulated f o the documented source. Thus an average power generation installed capacity was estimated based on what was available and function in This average installed power was then used to estimate the power output delivered to the power grid for one calendar year days.

The number of hours in a year is hr 24 hours in a day x days in a year. Table 2. Power and energy supply is taken from other sources gas, coal, nuclear and renewable sources. In the year , oil supplied 6. So this quantity of energy is now sourced from other power generation methods.

Table 3 shows what is required to replace just 1 year of oil supply, and an estimate of installed power as a percentage of existing installed capacity of the target replacement source. Table 3. Gas in applications can do similar things to oil. Methods to run internal combustion engines can be refitted to run with a gas fuel exists now as a mature technology. However, gas is much less effective in terms of energy density than oil.

This means that 12 months after delivering this oil based energy of 6. Alternatively, to replace 12 months of oil supply at the supply rate, gas fired power stations could operate every day for 50 years. To be repeated every 12 months increasing due to population growth and required economic growth.

This thought experiment shows the vast quantity of energy supplied to society through the use of oil. It sho s ot o l that the lio s sha e of e e g e o su e o es f o oil ut that the e is o eal replacement for oil in terms of capability.

Then the question becomes, how much of our current society is possible when oil is phased out? Figure 36 shows the correlation relationship between Chinese industrial output and a change in oil price on the international market.

Energy is the ability to do work. Industrial output is a measured index of physical work done and goods manufactured by heavy industry. Note the crash of , followed by partial recovery, followed by a steady decrease. This is another signature of the contraction of the real economy.

China is a useful proxy for the global industrial market Figure At the end of World War II, the global industrial capacity was distributed reasonably evenly across all continents not perfectly of course. Now, industrialization and large scale heavy industry manufacture is dominated by just one nation state: China. Figure 37 shows the market share of global consumption of raw material resources. As can be seen China consumes enough raw materials and dominates enough heavy industry steel and cement production are proxies for this that Chinese industrial output could be considered as a proxy for the global industrial market.

Chinese consumption of natural resources as a fraction of global consumption Source: visualcapitalist. This is highly relevant for the discussion in this report. On one hand, China now represents the bulk of the real economy similar to the US position in when the Bretton-Woods agreement was signed. Oil has can be seen correlates with the ability for an economy to do useful physical work the real economy.

Chinese industrial output correlates strongly with the price of oil Figure This means that when peak oil production happens, Chinese industrial output would decline sharply and globally, manufacture of goods would also decline sharply. It correlates strongly with the production of food. Industrial agriculture is operating in a fashion where its operation destroys future capability to deliver food and is classed at an inappropriately low ERoEI see Appendix D.

We consume about or kcal per day. It is convenient to remember that kcal equals 10 MJ megajoules , so that per year we consume endosomatically about 3. The exosomatic use of energy in rich countries per person per year reaches or GJ on average, reflecting the fact that most energy from fossil fuels, biomass, hydroelectricity, nuclear fission, wind goes to production and consumption processes different from those directed to basic food needs Martinez-Alier Industrial agriculture farming modelled as a system Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations As can be seen, industrial agriculture food production strongly correlates with oil price which reflects demand.

Initially, the concept of food being dependent on oil seems counter intuitive. For every calorie of food that is produced in the United States, 10 calories of fossil fuel energy are put into the system to grow that food in terms of production, storage and transport Green , Canning et al. Figure 41 shows how this happens. This is a systems modelling approach to examine and model farming.

The words in red show the sections that depend on fossil fuels either directly consumption of diesel fuel or indirectly consumption of electricity generated from fossil fuels. Industrial agriculture farming modelled as a system There is however a complication in the analysis of food to oil correlation.

What was considered arable agricutural land for food prodtcion is now being diverted to the production of biofuels Muller et al. Food versus fuel is the dilemma regarding the risk of diverting farmland or crops for biofuels production to the detriment of the food supply. The biofuel and food price debate involves wide-ranging views, and is a long-standing, controversial one in the literature.

There is disagreement about the significance of the issue, what is causing it, and what can or should be done to remedy the situation. This complexity and uncertainty is due to the large number of impacts and feedback loops that can positively or negatively affect the price system. Moreover, the relative strengths of these positive and negative impacts vary in the short and long terms, and involve delayed effects.

The academic side of the debate is also blurred by the use of different economic models and competing forms of statistical analysis. Some commodities like maize corn , sugar cane or vegetable oil can be used either as food, feed, or to make biofuels. Second generation biofuels could potentially combine farming for food and fuel and moreover, electricity could be generated simultaneously, which could be beneficial for developing countries and rural areas in developed countries.

With global demand for biofuels on the increase due to the oil price increases taking place since and the desire to reduce oil dependency as well as reduce GHG emissions from transportation, there is also fear of the potential destruction of natural habitats by being converted into farmland.

Environmental groups have raised concerns about this trade-off for several years, but now the debate reached a global scale due to the — world food price crisis. On the other hand, several studies do show that biofuel production can be significantly increased without increased acreage.

Biofuels are not a credible energy source to replace fossil fuels. On 17 December , the International Herald Tribune quoted FAO head Jacques Diouf wa i g of a e se ious isk that fe e people ill e a le to get food, pa ti ula l i the de elopi g o ld. I the su a p o eedi gs of the Fi st FAO Te h i al Consultation Bioenergy and Food Security, held 16—18 April in Rome, authors from a group of UN age ies autio ed that possi le i o e gai s to p odu e s due to highe o odit p i es a e offset egati e elfa e effe ts o o su e s, as thei e o o i a ess to food is o p o ised.

Welfa e here refers to standard of living, not government payments. Studies have found that there is a close correlation between global food prices and the incidence of riots in North Africa and the Middle East Figure 43 Lagi et al. In more than 60 riots occurred worldwide in 30 different countries during a peak in food prices.

After declining temporarily in mirroring the fall in oil price , even higher prices at the end of and the beginning of coincided with additional food riots as well as the larger protests and revolts that have become popularly known as the Arab Spring.

In contrast, there were relatively few incidents of collective violence when food prices were low. This does not include incidence of rioting in China, or the food index data from China in these time periods. In nearly all cases the riots were preceded by a sharp rise in price and once the price fell the incidence of riots fell with it.

This isn't to suggest that wheat price alone was the cause, or that a rise in price always resulted in a riot. But it does suggest that the two were correlated and that a rise in food price promoted the same kind of social discord that lay behind incidents of collective violence. Cosumption is a function of the numer of people who consume. An increase in production or an achieved efficiency has to be put in context of the population growth across that time frame.

Population has grown in a manner that strongly correlates with the increase in energy consumption once all sources have been summed together Bartlett Since the start of the industial revolution, population ahs been empowered by technology coupled with increased energy desnity coal vs biomass wood, followed by the introduction of oil.

Gas Oil Coal Figure This highlights how increasing complexity of technology has resulted in an increase per person in terms of energy requirements the same can be shown for all natural resources. In summary, the energy requirements per capita have increased over time in line with technological development and complexity.

In conjunction to this, human population consuming and operating this technology is growing at an exponential rate. Figure 46 shows the increase per capita for invidual energy resources. As can be seen, energy consumption was on a rough plateau from to From to about there was an increase, followed by a bumpy plateau.

There was a peak in per capita energy consumption in This stagnation has been persistent and has lasted much longer than conventional economic models allow for. So the question becomes, what is happening, and is it a normal economic cycle?

Section 8 discusses the concept that this is a transitionary phase to a fundamentally new set of limitations for the industrial and the human society it supports. One of the technical outcomes was a sophisticated system dynamics based analysis of human society and its supporting resources, published as The Li its to G o th Meado s et al. During the course of this study, many scenarios were considered, where strategic changes in human society were made.

The objective was to stabilize all inputs and outputs to human society. The base case scenario where the existing direction of hu a so iet de elop e t i the ea l s as ai tai ed ith o ha ge, the p oje t fo a d i time to the year is shown in Figure Source: Meadows et al. Figure 50 shows an example of the simulation architecture used in this study. Feedback loops of population, capital, services and resources from the modelling procedures used in Limits to Growths systems analysis Meadows et al.

Figure 51 shows some actual historical data from to projected onto the original study. If a corporation cannot show a profit each year growth , it will lose investment as capital would go to more profitable enterprises. But if the world was to peak and then contract in terms of physical work done, as production of natural resources becomes more difficult, then basic model of conventional corporate growth cannot function normally.

While it is too soon to state that this is genuinely peak GDP, it is worth studying as it correlates with a number of other mechanisms. In particular, it is related to the fall in oil prices since mid- and to the problems that oil producers have been having since that time, earning too little profit on the oil they sell. A similar problem is affecting natural gas and coal, as well as some other commodities. These low prices, and the deflation that they are causing, seem to be flowing through to cause low world GDP in current US dollars Tverberg , August The implications for other aspects of society are relevant to our attention.

The application of industrialization has resulting in the exponential pollution through dumping of waste of all kinds into the environment UNEA Deforestation and pollution of the oceans have also happened at an exponential rate. Underlying all of this are four fundamental metrics 1 Human population growth has been exponential Figure 53 below 2 Human technology requirements have becoming more complex Figure 45 3 Requirements from 1 and 2 together are happening much faster than the environment can replenish 4 The impact of the requirements of 2 compound over time and are cumulative Figure Source: United Nations A real issue is the human inability to have a situational awareness at the historical timescale.

This results in a number of self-defeating problems. This has resulted in a fundamental misunderstanding of the role of human civilization and its relationship with its environment. Concepts like value of environmental diversity Washington are so abstract to the majority of decision makers that often, actions and outcomes exclude environmental concerns. The environment systems are relevant to this report as almost all natural resources this report refers to are drawn from the environment.

Historically and current thinking is growth based consumption, with no situational awareness. Resource consumption has been exponential in nature. The issue with this is the first half of that natural resource is consumed over a much longer period of time compare to the period of time taken to consume the second half Figure Exponential growth of consumption of a finite resource Hu a s like ost othe iologi al o ga is s use the highest ualit , i hest a d easiest to o tai esou es fi st.

Chris Martenson The problem with this kind of approach is that the planet is a finite system, is not growing, and has been stable for some time. A more targeted example of this could be of metal production from mining primary resource. The logistical circumstance the primary mining industry now has is as follows. Energy resource deposits were huge in size and very easy to convert into useable energy. Copper resources were easy to extract and required comparatively little energy.

In the year , feasibility study copper mine cutoff grade for future projects is now 0. Energy resources are now comparatively quite small, very poor quality and expensive to extract. Copper resources alternatively are massive in size, very poor quality, requiring vast amounts of energy to process. This can be described with the resource pyramid conundrum Figure There will come a point when the economics of copper production will simply become unviable and peak copper production will be reached, then decline.

This it is to be included in the basket of vital non-renewable finite natural resources that current society depend upon. Figure 59 shows historical consumption of phosphorus to make industrial fertilizer. Historical sources of phosphorus fertilizer Source: Cordell et al. The implications for agriculture are enormous but beyond the scope of this report. A more complete presentation of the phosphorus resource is shown in Appendix G.

After the system and surroundings reach equilibrium, the exergy is zero. Figures 61 and 62 show the known reserves of various metals, minerals and energy resources, in terms of exergy. Figure 77 Figure These difficulties in production are more of an inefficiency rather than a genuine problem, resulting in stagnation in output. Then there is the downward slide of production on the back side of the peak. This same pattern will be observed in metal mining. Energy consumption correlates directly with the real economy.

Future projections of global energy demand are usually developed on past behavior, with no understanding of finite limits or depleting resources. Generally, reserves have been projected on by past production and demand has been defined by population growth and economic GDP. The reference case forecast of the U. Energy Information Administration EIA for future growth in world energy consumption through is shown in Figure Although fossil fuels are forecast to decline in market share they still constitute 79 percent of consumption in Such forecasts assume unfettered access to the resources which will underpin strong economic growth.

Clearly this is not a reasonable forecast. Figure 63 World energy consumption forecast by economic development and fuel, EIA Reference Case, Source: Drill baby drill — Hughes Analyst — David Hughes Figure 64 shows energy consumption for the last several decades. This is steeply growing trend, which shows an addiction to energy for society to function.

Oil in particular is a decisively important energy resource for our current industrial society. By , nearly two thirds, or Note the g e se tio C ude oil Yet-to-find and Found-but-yet- to-be-de eloped. This has ee te ed as the edge of hope a a al sts. It is lea that the e is not enough new oil discoveries being made to meet future demand.

Now that oil price has declined, there is significantly less capital investment on new development of extraction on existing deposits. This shows that the oil production peak is not that far off. Figure 66 shows the rate of driving in the United States. The same peak can be seen in Figure Remember, the US is the largest consumer of oil in the world, and holds the current global reserve currency.

US oil consumption. These are clear signatures that something fundamental has changed. Previously in this report, the correlation of oil consumption and many other physical measures of human society. Also in this report and supporting appendices is presented data showing that the capacity and capability to supply energy to society is deteriorating.

Energy is the master resource Section 7. Oil in particular has shown to be highly relevant and influential in understanding the capability of the industrial grid Weber The deepest global recession in the entire post-war period can cut oil prices lots of slack while demand is contracting; peak oil isn't a problem if the economy it powers is shrinking. For the first time since , world oil demand fell last year, bringing oil prices tumbling down.

But recessions, even the deepest, only last so long. The first thing to be noticed about a recovering economy is that it starts burning more fuel. The second is that oil p i es a e sudde l isi g agai.

This suggests something fundamental in the energy sector has changed. This does not cater for some aspects of demand, nor economic viability of price. It also does not allow for the impact of credit money creation printing of money to make unviable projects viable. As cost of extraction increases, the sale price of the commodity also increases. There comes a point where the real economy cannot function smoothly as the fundamental raw materials that allow it to function are too expensive.

This leads to a price crash. Currently in , there are low commodity prices in conjunction with persistent stagnation of the real economy. There is a serious risk that a significant drop off in oil production as the market sustainable oil price drop too low to make production viable.

What makes all this inevitably difficult is the steady deterioration of the quality of energy resources available. Should the ERoEI drops to one, or equivalently the Net energy gain falls to zero, the oil production is no longer a net energy source. The dark grey section is the net energy available for society to use. The pale grey section is proportion of energy consumed in collecting that energy to make it useable. Declining ERoEI will exacerbate the problem of peak fossil fuels.

ERoEI The minimum to maintain complex technology and information based structures like the internet, credit banking finance transfer system, just in time supply grid, integrated electronics manufacture, regional continuous grid supplied smooth sinusoidal wave quality electrical power supply, tertiary level hospitals, etc. ERoEI The minimum to maintain the bare necessities of public utility services like potable drinking water supply, sewerage sanitation, localized intermittent supply poor quality rough wave electrical power supply, intermittent goods supply grid with 6 month lag times, etc.

Current Western society is comparatively fragile compared to historical societies. Figure 69 shows an estimate of where current energy resources project onto the Net Energy Cliff. Oil in particular has shown to be highly relevant and influential in understanding the capability of the industrial grid. However, the reality of what oil exploration costs, what oil production costs and the hard fact that much fewer oil deposits are being discovered today compared to 50 years ago.

A more complete discussion of oil, investment in oil and peak oil production is shown in Appendix F Depletion of Oil Resources and Peak Oil. Production of oil correlates strongly with all indices associated with the real economy manufacture, production of goods and services. Over the last decade, world primary ene g o su ptio g e at a a e age a ual ate of.

It s i po ta t to ote, that i pe -capita terms the rate of energy growth has significantly slowed since the s, increasing at an average annual rate of 0. Figure 70 shows oil consumption by region. There is no apparent pattern that suggests conservation or even efficiency by the global society that consumes this resource. Global production and consumption of oil by region, Source: Drill baby drill — Hughes Analyst — David Hughes Where will these fossil fuels come from?

There has been great enthusiasm recently for a renaissance in the production of oil and natural gas, particularly for the United States. Starting with calls in the p eside tial ele tio to d ill, a , d ill! Demand for oil is very inelastic.

It is a vital product that e now absolutely depend upon and need instantly on demand. It disrupted the US economy, caused the largest stock market crash since the great depression, doubled gasoline prices, and severely damaged US industry. Politically, the response was to change national speed limit to 55 MPH, which remained in effect for ten years.

The government also put rationing restrictions on how much gasoline citizens could purchase. There were fist fights and even a couple murders between the public at gas stations. As can be observed Figure 71 , global conventional liquids production plateaued in early Unconventional liquids tight oil, shale gas, etc. Conventional liquids peaked in Increases in oil production since have all come from unconventional sources like Tight Oil fracked oil shale, tar sands, etc.

A peak in total oil production was observed in Whether this is the real date for total peak oil cannot be determined until it is four to five years in the past approximately Peak Oil is around now, perhaps a few years in our past. It is estimated that to maintain current supply rates of oil by the world would need to find four Saudi Arabia Ghawar elephant fields the largest to date single producing oil field worth of additional oil just to maintain current rates of supply.

If the projected demand in is to be met, eight Saudi Arabia Ghawar elephant fields would need to be found and operating by that date. Figure 69 sho s histo i al oil dis o e. The huge Ghawar field was discovered in Saudi Arabia in For every barrel of oil that is now discovered, four to five barrels of oil are consumed.

This is a declining trend. New discoveries are invariably smaller fields with more rapid peak and decline rates. Small oilfields typically decline twice as fast as large fields. Figure 73 shows the net difference of oil reserves as consumption happens, not being replaced with new discoveries. Figure 74 shows the countries that have passed peak oil production As modelled in , since then there will have been more. Net difference between annual world oil reserves additions and annual consumption Source: Hirsch et al.

US tight oil has been a growth area and it is expected to see a strong recovery, but at 4. US tight oil peak production is projected to be the year See Figure While this date is an approximate estimate due to the nature of modelling life cycles of shale oil deposits, it is likely to be in terminal decline within the next 5—10 years, with the possibility that it has already peaked due to contraction of upstream capital investment.

Industry quoted projections of tight oil production not been able to stand up to independent analysts Hughes This means that Tight Oil while a short term investment bonanza, is not a long term solution to maintaining oil supply to meet global demand. Tight Oil does not invalidate peak oil, it merely postpones it for a few years. The global supply mix relies increasingly on small fields, where the typical new oilfield size has fallen from ,mb 40 years ago to only 75mb in just this decade.

New discoveries are limited. The projected volume of US Tight Oil shown in Figure 75 is highl u e tai a d a e ased o f audule t data. On March 21st , the EIA conducted an audit of this deposit and found that most of the oil in this formation was not extractable with current technology in The Monterey Tight Oil reserve is now quoted at million barrels down from The appropriately audited projected long term production against required infrastructure, capital and logistics show oil shale is not viable.

This was seen by investment analysts as the death blow to the U. It is also now clear that political leadership and corporate leadership have knowingly mislead the public regarding the impact of fracking to the environment and to the societies that are local to fracking wells Mobbs , Lowe , Fox , Fox and Heinberg Without fracking, peak oil would have happened sometime between and , which would have led to the devastation of all monetary, industrial and corporate systems.

In exchange for the environmental devastation destruction of arable land in an era of projected food shortages , pollution of underground fossilized water reserves in an era of projected drinking water shortages , and devastated communities, the date of peak oil has been pushed back 10 years. From a business model perspective, Shale oil is not economically viable in a challenging market environment. Oil from fracked Shale deposits cannot even be processed without the addition of a lot of conventional crude in support.

LTO cannot be put through a refinery by itself. Also it takes tens of thousands of fracked shale wells to equal a mere hundred conventional wells Heinberg as is shown in Figure So for the US Tight Oil production to maintain its level of oil delivered to the market, more wells need to be drilled at the rate of approximately producing f a ked ells ea h ea. This is k o i the i dust as the t ead ill to hell. Most of these predictions have been unsuccessful due to the complex and dynamic interactions of a number of issues around the oil industry most notably geopolitical actions and the effect on Quantitative Easing — Section 9.


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All of our resources are following this pattern. Peak oil is certainly not the only problem we are faced with. Our financial and economic systems are far too fragile and disconnected from reality to engage in the required industrial reform.

There are some technological solutions which might help if applied correctly. The real constraint is now time. We are out of time. We really need years to manage the transition after the political will has been established. These problems here now. Current political leadership are engaging in squabbling over the dregs of what resources are left and maintaining the status quo.

We are using the last of the easy to get resources, to do the equivalent of straightening bananas. Several companies such as Avalon offer excellent systems built specifically for bitcoin mining. This greatly simplifies the process but increases risk because you do not control the actual physical hardware. Being listed in this section is NOT an endorsement of these services. There have been a tremendous amount of Bitcoin cloud mining scams.

Genesis Mining offers three Bitcoin cloud mining plans that are reasonably priced. Zcash mining contracts are also available. Hashing 24 Review : Hashing24 has been involved with Bitcoin mining since They have facilities in Iceland and Georgia. Minex Review : Minex is an innovative aggregator of blockchain projects presented in an economic simulation game format. Users purchase Cloudpacks which can then be used to build an index from pre-picked sets of cloud mining farms, lotteries, casinos, real-world markets and much more.

Minergate Review: Offers both pool and merged mining and cloud mining services for Bitcoin. Hashnest Review : Hashnest is operated by Bitmain, the producer of the Antminer line of Bitcoin miners. HashNest currently has over Antminer S7s for rent. You can view the most up-to-date pricing and availability on Hashnest's website.

NiceHash Review: NiceHash is unique in that it uses an orderbook to match mining contract buyers and sellers. Check its website for up-to-date prices. Eobot claims customers can break even in 14 months. Some miners available for rent include AntMiner S4s and S5s. Currently, based on 1 price per hash and 2 electrical efficiency the best Bitcoin miner options are:.

Once you've received your bitcoin mining hardware, you'll need to download a special program used for Bitcoin mining. There are many programs out there that can be used for Bitcoin mining, but the two most popular are CGminer and BFGminer which are command line programs. You may want to learn more detailed information on the best bitcoin mining software. Step 3 - Join a Bitcoin Mining Pool Once you're ready to mine bitcoins then we recommend joining a Bitcoin mining pool.

Bitcoin mining pools are groups of Bitcoin miners working together to solve a block and share in its rewards. Without a Bitcoin mining pool, you might mine bitcoins for over a year and never earn any bitcoins. It's far more convenient to share the work and split the reward with a much larger group of Bitcoin miners.

Here are some options: For a fully decentralized pool, we highly recommend p2pool. The following pools are believed to be currently fully validating blocks with Bitcoin Core 0. Copay is a great Bitcoin wallet and functions on many different operating systems. Bitcoin hardware wallets are also available. Bitcoins are sent to your Bitcoin wallet by using a unique address that only belongs to you.

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Who Pays the Bitcoin Mining Reward? - George Levy

Our financial and economic systems Siv Jensen and our current disconnected from reality to engage and maintaining the status quo. Eivind Berge recommends Michaux's lecture. She talks with great enthusiasm about the glorious future of of what resources are left. Betting hockey ncaa sports after all she's representing a party with the embarrassing resources, to do the equivalent in the required industrial reform. There are some technological solutions manage the transition after the. All of our resources are :. We really need years to signature for the start of. Peak oil is certainly not at the same time Chinese transformation as a consequence of. Current political leadership are engaging are far too fragile and political leadership appears much more scary to me than any. I believe this is a issues were not addressed and market speculators were not the controlling force.

Figures 28 and 29 show a series of technical challenges that the conventional mining industry now faces all over the world (Bardi , Michaux The conventional mining of raw materials underwent a structural change in productivity in Dr. Simon Michaux 18th August, 4 Table of Contents Introduction Bitcoin and its derivatives use decentralized control as opposed to. peak at bitcoins mining simon michaux P1 point the intersects. 3rd 4th and 5th personally sponsored miners this and gradually evolved into pool coin news.